Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an impending US-Russia leadership summit have been overstated, apparently.
Just days after Donald Trump said he intended to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."
- Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs White House empty-handed
The frequently changing summit is another twist in the president's efforts to mediate an end to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in the North African country recently to celebrate that truce deal, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he declared.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost four years.
Reduced Influence
According to Witkoff, the key to achieving a deal was Israel's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided Trump leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president gained from a long record of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, including his decision to move the American embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, actually, is better regarded among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that gave him special sway over the nation's head.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the war.
At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - then to back off in the wake of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.
Trump loves to tout his skill to meet and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the war any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a summit in the US state just as it appeared likely that the president would sign off on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently delayed.
Last week, as reports spread that the White House was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then touted the possible summit in Hungary.
The following day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"You know, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he said.
But the president of Ukraine later made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.
Thus, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately pressuring Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately decided on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that pledge, admitting that ending the war is turning out harder than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when neither side wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.